Trade Idea: Short Greek Equity Index – Long Ftse 100
12 October 2013
The first point is that the Greek equity index level is very stretched: RSI is now over 70 and price levels already reached the upper Bollinger band. Although this would already be enough to short the index, a closer look at historical data corroborates this feeling. The true driver seems to be speculation; indeed historical weekly Vol. is around 27% and GARCH short-term predictions are in line with that. Moreover many investors have already set up long positions, making it is more likely to see a take-profit over the latter rather than the further initiation of new ones. This eventually puts more pressure on the downside.
On the other side, FTSE 100 provides an interesting entry opportunity as the total return on the index YTD is slightly positive compared to stronger performances of other indexes. Moreover the FTSE 100 is pretty exposed to emerging markets, which may outperform in the oncoming days pushed by a still loose Fed MP and the consequent flow of capitals looking for returns.
Finally, we have declining rates in the developed markets and this is making equity there more attractive.
Time horizon: 2 weeks; Exposure ratio: 1:2.
Note that ASE:IND is much more volatile that UKX:IND, thereby, in order to balance the risk exposure wrt both legs of the trade, it is necessary to overweight the notional of the UK leg.