Tag: trading

Dark Pools: Fifty Shades of Trade

“Make all the trades through the dark pools so it masks what we’re doing. That way we’ll preserve our head start, which will not be a long one.” This is how Bobby Axelrod instructs his traders to get rid of his natural gas positions in the latest episode of the famous TV series, Billions. Dark […]

All Cold on the Western Front: Trading the Oil Distillates Market in the Age of Climate Change

Introduction In the midst of a particularly cold North American winter induced by an unexpected southwards movement of the polar vertex in late December 2017, New York Harbor Heating Oil surged nearly 15% from its December low through the end of January. This important petroleum middle distillate often used for heating in the Northeast states, […]

How to trade Japanese Elections

Introduction The Japanese PM dissolved the lower parliament on 28th September, initiating the process for the snap elections to be held on October 22nd. We believe that it is a move to secure a fresh mandate in the parliament after Mr. Abe’s association with a series of scandals over the summer. The approval rating for […]

How to Manipulate the Bitcoin Market (2/3)

This article is the follow up to “How to Manipulate the Bitcoin Market (1/3)”. In the second part, we want to show how the spikes in price between the end of May and the first half of June 2016 were the result of just a few investors who used huge leverage to strengthen their position. […]

Special Report – Oil: an impossible trade

Oil has long been one of the main drivers of the worldwide economy and for this reason it is closely watched by all investors and traders. The central role of what, back in the days, was called the “Black gold” is given by its high cross asset correlation. It has the power of leading the […]

Straddling on the oil

Not long ago, two major oil-producing countries (Russia and Saudi Arabia) reached an agreement, according to which the stake of output of those countries was capped at January-2016 levels. The move was very unexpected, since no one had bet that the deal would be reached, thus oil prices went through serious fluctuations the same day; […]

Using Fourier transform to detect large orders: Part 1

In the last two decades, advancements in information technology have contributed in the creation of virtual marketplaces where buyers and sellers are brought together through an electronic trading platform. Electronic trading is rapidly replacing human trading in global securities markets. Therefore, human best-execution practice has naturally evolved into automated execution algorithms. Algorithmic execution refers to […]

Volatility-linked strategy: a new approach

Can volatility indices provide useful signals on the “underlying” market? We tried to figure it out analysing some relations between the VIX and other indices provided by the Chicago Board Options Exchange. The VIX index, which is derived from prices of a basket of out-of-the-money options on the S&P500, represents a measure of the S&P500 […]

Riding the volatility surface

One of the tools traders have found to cope with the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes models has been to allow for non-flat volatilities, which means that the implied volatility of an option does not depend merely on the historical volatility in the underlying, but also on the strike and time to maturity. Keep […]

MARKET RECAP 21/02/2015

US  Big news has struck the US economy this week and in particular the ones oil-related has had a strong effect on the market. The US economy has been once again the main driver of the fall in oil prices this week as the country’s stockpiles of crude last week increased by 7.7 million to […]

MARKET RECAP 6/12/2014

US The week ended with a boom for the US economy as the November jobs report was released on Friday. 321,000 new jobs were created in the last month, well ahead of economists’ forecasts of 230,000. This piece of news puts the US economy on track to achieve the best year of jobs growth since […]

MARKET RECAP 29/11/2014

US The week just past us was one of slight gains in US equity markets, with most volume on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The week opened with a soft print of the US services PMI, then trading became jittery for the S&P 500 as on Tuesday the growth rate […]

MARKET RECAP 15/11/2014

US US equities continued to trade sideways in the last week due to the lack of news catalysts. The only major pieces of news out were the number of initial and continuing jobless claims diffused on Thursday and the retail sales figures released on Friday. The anticipation of the former two had pushed the S&P […]

Can silver rise when gold falls? This is the question

On normal market days, the (positive) correlation between gold and silver is quite high. Looking at the chart below, it looks like silver gives chase to the movements in gold and follows them quite closely. One thing we can observe though is that downside changes in gold reflect more heavily on silver prices, which lose […]

MARKET RECAP 08/11/2014

US It has been a busy week for US markets, filled with plenty of data and the outcome of the midterms on November 4th. The result of these was a Republican takeover of the Senate, and in all the expression of dissatisfaction or anger at Mr Obama’s performance. The S&P 500, which opened on Monday […]

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