US Elections – Politics Toying with Financial Markets

The US Electoral System In the US, the race for presidency is a long process that includes primaries, caucuses and national conventions, in which the parties’ candidates are determined. The main popular vote on who is going to be president of the US is called general election and will take place on the 8th November […]

Straddling on the oil

Not long ago, two major oil-producing countries (Russia and Saudi Arabia) reached an agreement, according to which the stake of output of those countries was capped at January-2016 levels. The move was very unexpected, since no one had bet that the deal would be reached, thus oil prices went through serious fluctuations the same day; […]

China and commodities, is there any trade opportunity?

Commodities rout is one of the key themes that have characterised 2015. Further to oil and gold (which we covered last week http://www.bsic.it/future-gold-full-hedge-role-risk/), several basic resources, like industrial metals, have been suffering for months, but they may be affected by slightly different factors than the former. Through this article, we aim at understanding both fundamental […]

M&A PAIR TRADING: THE POPOLARI BANKS CASE

This week, we are proud to publish an in-deep analysis on the Italian Popolari banks situation, one of the most discussed topics since the announcement of the AQR done by the ECB. Thanks to the recent rumors of an Italian decree, which changes the voting powers’ structure of the above mentioned banks, stocks have sky […]

Beyond the AQR: Unicredit vs. Intesa San Paolo

Lately, there has been increasing speculation regarding the results of the AQR (Asset Quality Review), which will be published by the ECB in about a month time. The AQR is a central part of the “comprehensive assessment” investigation that the ECB is leading on European banks balance sheets. Working in conjunction with the national competent […]

UK housing bubble: time to cool down

The sharp increase in UK property prices-predominantly but not limited to the London area- over the last year has led many to believe such a trend has become unsustainable. According to Nationwide Building Society, Real estate prices registered an 18% annual change in London since 2013, while the average UK figure rose by 10,8% in […]

Trade idea: Pay 10y Euro, Receive 10y UK

The main rationale for the trade is a possible positive surprise of the European economy by the end of the year. The periphery has performed well and the recent resolution of the Berlusconi’s issue has reduced the political risk of the area. Moreover, the economic performances outline the beginning of a recovery path: Italy PMI […]

Follow-up on last week Japan trade idea

Last week we suggested shorting three Japanese financials in light of the 10-years JGB price fall, going at the same time long Olympus Corp. and the Nikkei index, in case no more easing was announced on Tuesday night. Kuroda kept monetary policy on hold and so we entered the trade on Wednesday Tokyo early trading. […]

Follow up on last week’s trade idea on cointegration trading

Last week we suggested to leverage on our quant models to play out the cointegration existing between Apple and Amazon by shorting roughly 2 Amazon stocks for each Apple stock bought. The idea, which benefited from  both a fundamental and quantitative edge has returned a profit of roughly 5.5%, assuming a margin of 20% on […]

Trade idea: Short CAC40

Gold’s fall coupled with worrying macroeconomic data ignited a risk-off sentiment this week, turning investors far more pessimistic. If we add the UK downgrade, usual May sell-in and the weak momentum across markets of last week, we can imagine a bearish scenario for the coming days. In particular, we believe that the France situation is […]