Can the Implied Volatility Surface predict Returns of shorting Puts?

We gave a brief introduction to put writing strategies already earlier this semester. We since thought about possible modifications of such strategies and their effects on return characteristics and return predictability. The positive returns of put writing strategies can be motivated from risk premia, as we show in the first part of the article. We […]

FTSE100 Time to sell

The FTSE100 index has recently touched its all time high. Is this peak justified? Most likely not, in our opinion. There are both long term and short-term reasons to expect the most important UK index to decline in the near future.   Long Term: global economic growth and interest rates Let’s first address the reasons […]