Tag: JPY

Dollar repatriation? Different story told by cross currency swap

Intro Cross-currency basis swaps, also known as basis swaps, are contracts in which two counterparties agree to exchange interest payments according to two floating rates as well as notional principals denoted in two different currencies. Theoretically, covered interest rate parity should hold in absence of arbitrage opportunities. Here S and F denote the spot and […]

BSIC Market Recap 30|11|13

Panel_29|11|13  US This week has been really quiet for the US. Two main issues arise: the initial jobless claims surprise on the downside (actual 316K vs expected 330K), and the decline in the durable goods orders. (-2%) in October. With regard to the first data, although it is clearly good for the economy, it is […]

BSIC Market Recap 23|11|13

Panel 22|11|2013 US This week Bernanke surprised the markets outlining the chance of early tapering of QE (December meeting). For us this is quite surprising, as we still believe the US economy is not performing as well as it was believed this spring. Three main reasons have worsened our outlook on the US economy. 1) […]

Trade idea: short put Nikkei – strike 14000

From a technical point of view, NIKKEI recent movements do not deliver any blatant signal to ground expectations on: last closure stands close to the moving average and the RSI lies flat around 50.  However, we believe it’s worth to take a stand on the general markets’ sentiment over Japan. Specifically, BoJ speech delivered on […]

Follow-up on last week Japan trade idea

Last week we suggested shorting three Japanese financials in light of the 10-years JGB price fall, going at the same time long Olympus Corp. and the Nikkei index, in case no more easing was announced on Tuesday night. Kuroda kept monetary policy on hold and so we entered the trade on Wednesday Tokyo early trading. […]

Activism and value creation in Japan

Third Point LLC, Asset Under Management (as of 17/05/13): $12.9bn Sony Corporation (SNE), Market Capitalization (as of 17/05/13): $20.37bn Deal type: Spin-off Proposal via IPO Mr. Daniel Seth Loeb, manager and founder of the NY based hedge fund Third Point LLC, has recently turned his attention toward Japan and Sony in particular. Mr. Loeb’s view […]

Conditioned order in Japan: short financials if no more stimulus is added by BOJ on Tuesday night

INTRODUCTION During last months in Japan, extreme monetary policies – also known as Abenomics – implemented by the duo Abe-Kuroda to fight deflation and give a kick to the stagnant economy, have caused a huge reaction all over the markets: the Yen has been slashed, Nikkei index has been skyrocketing in an impressive rally and […]

Trade Idea: FX update, Long USD/JPY

After having come very close to the 100 peak, this week the USD lost some ground to the JPY trading close to the 98 level. We believe that the next target is obviously the breaking out of the 100 line. On the one hand we have updates from BOJ governor Kuroda who said that the […]

Trade idea: Spread Long S&P 500 short Nikkei

We believe that in case of a strong distress the Nikkei index can suffer the most. Why not European equities? We believe that European equities have already suffered from the recent turmoil while the Japanese index has been heavily unaffected and has recently rallied dramatically, completely diverging from fundamentals whose forecasts have continuously declined recently. […]

Trade idea: Short Nikkei Long NZDJPY

Trade idea: Short Nikkei Long NZDJPY The volatility of the recent week, ahead of the Italian election, has pushed up the safety havens assets as investors turned more risk averse, in particular the JPY appreciated significantly. However, we noticed that the Nikkei 225 Index does not weaken consequently so the inverse relationship between the JPY […]

Trade Idea: Short AUD/JPY

Trade Idea: Short AUD/JPY   It is well known that the BoJ is pursuing a really aggressive expansionary monetary policy that clearly is pushing down the Yen compared to other currencies. However, we see a possible reverse in the short term trend of the pair AUD/JPY. From a technical point view we saw that the […]