The changing face of inflation: does it undermine the Post-Bretton Woods paradigm

An overview of inflation interpretations In the following article, we are going to examine the current framework of monetary policy – inflation targeting – with a focus on the evolution of the inflation process Post-Bretton Woods and its effects on the current regime of price stability. In the post-war era, the behavior of inflation has […]

Inflation Derivatives and the Inflation Risk Premium – Part 2

Following the article from last week, we now investigate the Inflation Risk Premium. We start by introducing the role inflation plays in monetary policy decisions and what are the mechanics of the Inflation Risk Premium, which is one of the most important drivers of market-based inflation rate. Then we analyse how the changes in the […]

Inflation Derivatives and the Inflation Risk Premium – Part 1

“Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair” Sam Ewing Inflation is an elusive phenomenon which is sometimes dubbed a “hidden tax”, eroding purchasing power and returns. This article is the first in a series of two. In this first part, […]

A Double Edged Sword of the US Economy

Introduction As we noted in our final publication of 2017, the year 2017 was characterized by very low volatility and stable positive returns on the majority of stock markets. This took place even despite the start of stimulus withdrawal by major central banks which was seen in the gradual increase in the target policy rates […]

The FED Model: Illusion or Reality?

The aim of this article is to analyse the popular Fed Model, pointing out its strengths as a descriptive tool but warning investors against its alleged predictive qualities. The Fed Model is a stock valuation approach introduced in the late 1990s. It asserts that the acceptable earnings yield (the inverse of the PE ratio) for […]

The Economic Aftermath of Erdogan’s Quest for Power

Over the last couple of months Turkey has been greatly divided over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s proposal to augment the executive powers of his position. Ultimately, Erdoğan claimed victory by the slimmest of margins last Sunday as 51% of Turks stood by his side in a vote whose integrity is being questioned by many European […]

Market Recap 23-04-2017

United States Amidst continued geopolitical uncertainty and mixed corporate earnings results, US equities experienced a week of sideways movement. Later in the week however, the major indices recovered some of their previous week´s losses as confidence in president Trump´s tax reforms strengthened again. US treasury secretary Steven Mnunich announced that a proposal for the tax […]

Czech Koruna Ready to Jump as CNB Removes Floor

The Czech koruna, the currency of an economically relatively small country, recently has gained much attention by an increasing number of speculators. They have been positioning themselves to benefit from a possible appreciation of the Czech currency. For three years, the Czech National Bank (CNB) has kept the koruna above the determined level of 27 […]

Market Recap 02-04-2017

United States The S&P 500 closed at $2,362.72, up 1.44% when compared with the beginning of the week, where opened at $2,329.11 following concerns about President Trump’s ability to secure the passage of the tax reform after failure of his healthcare reform. The other major U.S. equity indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ, […]

Market Recap 12-03-2017

United States The S&P 500 closed at $2,372.60, slightly depreciating when compared with the beginning of the week, where it was standing at $2,375.32, but still higher than the weeks’ low of $2,357.98. Similar was the fate of both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ, as they closed at slightly lower levels than […]

Market Recap 05-03-2017

Market Recap 05-03-2017 United States Despite experiencing a downward correction towards the closing of the week, US equity indices reached new record levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new record level by breaching the 21.000 mark. On Wednesday, it peaked at 21.115, to close the week at 21.005, its first loss in a […]

Market Recap 26-02-2017

United States Last week was a particular good one for American equities. Indeed, the Dow Jones Index scored four record high closures in a row, up 0.96% from last week’s close. Smaller gains were scored also by the S&P 500 (+0.69%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.12%). It is worth noting how the last S&P 500 […]

Market Recap 19-02-2017

United States On the week ended February 17, 2017, US stocks closed at record highs as investor sentiment remains positive given the possibility of changes to US corporate tax structure, as well as the likely loosening of regulations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.4% to 20,624, while the S&P500 increased by 1.2% to […]

US and Eurozone: expectations upside down

It is widely known that the USA and the EU are in different economic conditions: the American economy has risen from the crisis and the FED is tightening the policy, while Draghi, the president of the ECB, declared that they will keep the quantitative easing going. Unemployment in the US is near its natural rate, […]

Argentina: A Land of Opportunities?

The focus of this article will be on the Argentinian government debt and potential upsides and downsides it faces. We will examine the attractiveness of their fixed income market by observing the current political situation in the country, the performance of neighbor countries as well as the global economic outlook. The New Government In November […]

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