Democratic Party Primaries: A Markets Perspective

In this article, we will analyze the upcoming Democratic Party Primaries for the 2020 US Presidential elections from a markets point of view. We will start by introducing the Democratic Party primary system for electing the Democratic Party’s Nominee who will face President Trump on the 2020 elections, after introducing the primary concept we will […]

Market Recap 26-02-2017

United States Last week was a particular good one for American equities. Indeed, the Dow Jones Index scored four record high closures in a row, up 0.96% from last week’s close. Smaller gains were scored also by the S&P 500 (+0.69%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.12%). It is worth noting how the last S&P 500 […]

BSIC Market Recap 30|11|13

Panel_29|11|13  US This week has been really quiet for the US. Two main issues arise: the initial jobless claims surprise on the downside (actual 316K vs expected 330K), and the decline in the durable goods orders. (-2%) in October. With regard to the first data, although it is clearly good for the economy, it is […]

BSIC Market Recap 23|11|13

Panel 22|11|2013 US This week Bernanke surprised the markets outlining the chance of early tapering of QE (December meeting). For us this is quite surprising, as we still believe the US economy is not performing as well as it was believed this spring. Three main reasons have worsened our outlook on the US economy. 1) […]

Follow-up on last week Japan trade idea

Last week we suggested shorting three Japanese financials in light of the 10-years JGB price fall, going at the same time long Olympus Corp. and the Nikkei index, in case no more easing was announced on Tuesday night. Kuroda kept monetary policy on hold and so we entered the trade on Wednesday Tokyo early trading. […]

Commerzbank joins the European recapitalization effort

Commerzbank Market Cap (as of 17/05/13): €4.42bn Deal Type: €2.5bn Rights Issue On Tuesday Commerzbank announced the details of the rights issue it previously declared in March. This rights issue will aim to raise €2.5bn in line with Basel III capital requirements. An earlier vote of the Board of Directors on April the 19th approved to […]

Shopping in UK for JC Flowers

JC Flowers & Company LLC: $2.3bn under management Cabot Credit Management Group Ltd Market Cap: N/A Deal size: £800mln   On 15th of May it was announced that funds managed and advised by JC Flowers & Company LLC have acquired Cabot Credit Management Group Ltd. in a secondary buyout from AnaCap Financial Partners LLP and its co-investors, Morgan […]

Conditioned order in Japan: short financials if no more stimulus is added by BOJ on Tuesday night

INTRODUCTION During last months in Japan, extreme monetary policies – also known as Abenomics – implemented by the duo Abe-Kuroda to fight deflation and give a kick to the stagnant economy, have caused a huge reaction all over the markets: the Yen has been slashed, Nikkei index has been skyrocketing in an impressive rally and […]

Trade idea: short Mediolanum

Trade idea: short Mediolanum In the next few weeks Italian financials will be under stress in our opinion. Uncertainty is likely to keep ruling the markets for political reasons and macroeconomic fundamentals are still concerning as shown by recent releases of February PMI index (45.8, -2 month on month) or youth unemployment (an impressive 38.7%, […]

Focus on Monte dei Paschi di Siena

In this continuation from the previous newsletter we enter more in depth into the merits of the Monti Bonds as well as explaining the infamous three derivatives contract recently called into question (Alexandria, Santorini and Nota Italia).   Monti Bonds Although it could be erroneously believed that Monti Bonds have been invented in December 2012 […]

Monte Paschi’s €3.9bn bailout – In depth

BMPS mkt cap (as of 15/02/13): €2.8bn Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world’s oldest bank (founded in 1472) and Italy’s third biggest lender with €224bn assets, has been at the centre of attention in recent weeks following disclosure that the bank suffered a €730 million loss related to three loss-making derivative transactions (namely […]