Trading on expectations: The impact of future ECB monetary policy on the market
As we write this, the EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen to $1.3713 from about ~$1.4 when Draghi first gave his speech at the regular board meeting more than a week ago. The market seems to be pricing in possible monetary easing to be announced by the ECB in June at its regular meeting. A week
Draghi’s next move: Running out of choices?
Two days ago, during its regular policy meeting, the ECB left interest rates unchanged and Mario Draghi said the “council was comfortable acting next time.” He signaled that there was a unanimous belief that the current inflation rate of 0.7% is unacceptable. He also stated that the strength of the euro was a “serious concern”
Trade idea: Pay 10y Euro, Receive 10y UK
The main rationale for the trade is a possible positive surprise of the European economy by the end of the year. The periphery has performed well and the recent resolution of the Berlusconi’s issue has reduced the political risk of the area. Moreover, the economic performances outline the beginning of a recovery path: Italy PMI
Lisbon goes back to the market with a €3bn bond issue
Object: €3.0 billion issuance of Obrigações do Tesouro (OT) (fixed rate bonds), interest rate 5.65%, annual coupons On May 6th the Republic of Portugal issued its first new government bonds since requesting an international bailout two years ago, in a heavily-oversubscribed offer of 10-year debt that raised €3bn. The bonds will pay fixed annual coupons
Trade Idea: Short EUR/USD
This week was dominated by the US and European central bankers speeches. They both confirmed their accommodative monetary policy. However the FED just confirmed its commitment to the bond buying program until the economy would have showed sign of improvement. The ECB, on the other side, decided to take really strong actions cutting rates and
Q&A on the Cyprus situation
How big is Cyprus’ economy? GDP of €18.0bn as of 2011 (latest official figure) Why does Cyprus need a bailout? Did Cyprus have an irresponsible/spendthrift Government? No, it is its banks that are the problem. Cyprus’ Debt/GDP ratio stood at 49% in 2008 and rose to 71% by 2011 as a result of the