All Cold on the Western Front: Trading the Oil Distillates Market in the Age of Climate Change

Introduction In the midst of a particularly cold North American winter induced by an unexpected southwards movement of the polar vertex in late December 2017, New York Harbor Heating Oil surged nearly 15% from its December low through the end of January. This important petroleum middle distillate often used for heating in the Northeast states, […]

Psychological Biases – How many errors do you commit when investing?

Introduction To maximise our profit when investing in financial instruments we try to rely on analysis of the underlying values, macroeconomic trends and possibly other quantitative methods. However, as much as we try to optimise our returns, we often fail to do so, as we fall prey to our own cognitive and emotional biases. Cognitive […]

Market Recap 11/03/18

US Continuing a monthly streak of surprises, after gapping down -0.66% immediately after Gary Cohn’s resignation as economic advisor of the current US administration, the S&P recovered, increasing 3.25% weekly. In particular all the major indexes rallied (Dow +1,77%, S&P +1,74%, Nasdaq +1,93%) on Friday as non-farm payrolls were 313k (vs 210k expected) and wage […]

Greek Banks are Back (in THE Game)

Macro Environment 2018 is bound to be the point of inflection for the Greek economy. The Bank of Greece reports that GDP will grow 2.5% over the next two years, while the European Commission expects a 1.6% growth in 2017 – the economy’s best performance in a decade. Greece’s 10-year bond yield fell below 4% […]

Siemens AG: German Jumping

The Theory Behind the Implied Vol Jump The classical Black-Scholes model for option pricing assumes that stock prices follow a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with constant drift and, more relevant for the scope of this article, constant volatility (σ). Analytically: where r is the risk-free rate, q is dividend yield and W(t) is a Standard […]

Market Recap 04/03/18

US This week, the main events were the inaugural testimony by new Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell to the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, and the announcement that President Trump is planning to impose tariffs on steel (10%) and aluminium (25%) imports. Mr. Powell told lawmakers on Tuesday […]

The wizard stands behind the curtain, Amazon’s invisible wall and the acquisition of Ring for $1 billion

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) – market cap as of 02/03/2018: $726.28bn Introduction Every time Amazon announces an acquisition, it is hard not to feel the excitement. All the more so considering that the online giant has had an uncertain relationship with M&A and has only in the recent years garnered the confidence to pull the trigger […]

Up next: Spotify goes public with no underwriters. Will that be the tune of the future?

Introduction  The Direct Listing process, also known as Direct Public Offering (DPO), is a procedure by which companies can have their shares publicly traded on an exchange without the assistance of an investment bank. The company, indeed, will just have to submit the necessary documents for the listing, look for investors – both qualified and […]

Geely challenges the world automotive leader and cunningly acquires 9% of the German gem Daimler AG

Daimler AG (ETR: DAI) – Market Cap €72.05 bn Geely Automobiles Holding Ltd.(HKG: 0175) – Market Cap HKD 222.96bn (€23 bn) Introduction  On 23rd of February, the Chinese car manufacturer Geely announced that it had gathered a 9.7% stake of the German automotive colossus Daimler. This came as a surprise in Germany, as regulation imposes […]

When a sweet deal doesn’t sound sweet enough: Temenos to acquire Fidessa for £1.4bn in cash

Temenos Group (SWX:TEMN) – market cap as of 23/02/2018: CHF7.60bn Fidessa Group (LON:FDSA) – market cap as of 23/02/2018: GBP1.47bn Introduction On February 21st, 2018, the boards of both Temenos and Fidessa have reached an agreement for the takeover of the former over the latter for £1.4 billion. The two European companies operate in two […]

Albertsons and Rite Aid to merge in the latest move to contrast the growing threat posed by online e-commerce

Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) – market cap as of 23/02/2018: $2.22bn Introduction  On the 20th February, Rite Aid Corporation, one of the leading US drugstore chains, entered into a definitive merger agreement with Albertsons Companies, one of the largest American private equity-backed grocery retailers. The deal will result in the creation of a company with a combined enterprise […]

Thomson Reuters making the headlines as Blackstone acquires its Financial and Risk unit

The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE:BX) – market cap as of 23/02/2018: USD41.1bn Thomson Reuters Corporation (TSX:TRI) – market cap as of 23/02/2018: CAD35.8bn Introduction On January 30, 2018, Thomson Reuters announced the agreement to sell a 55% stake in its Financial and Risk unit to the US private equity firm Blackstone for more than $17bn. […]

The 79th element: Gold

History What made gold a unique asset is its shininess, its malleability and the property of endurable integrity over time. Thanks to these characteristics, it has been widely used in the history of mankind for two core aims: To celebrate the human power and wealth thanks to its magnificence, To support the exchange of goods […]

What’s wrong McFly? Chicken? Back to the Bitcoin Futures

Introduction The purpose of this article is to analyse different futures markets on cryptocurrencies and try to find justifications for excessive premia and discrepancies in prices. Firstly, we are going to present a general overview on cryptocurrencies and futures, then a short analysis of premia and finally we’ll look at the discrepancies amongst different exchanges […]

Market Recap 25/02/18

US This week, the main event was the release on Wednesday of the minutes of the Fed’s January policy meeting. These confirmed the growing sense of confidence among policymakers over the outlook for the US economy and inflation giving further credit to the hypothesis that the FED will raise the rates sooner and at a […]

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