Category: Trade Ideas

Hennes & Mauritz AB: A Bear in the Swedish Woods

Introduction Firstly, we briefly present H&M business. Secondly, we provide a report of recently announced Q1 2017 results. Thirdly, we perform a DCF and multiples valuation to find a target price for H&M, in line with recently announced results. Finally, we will explore a strategy to profit from our analysis. H&M: business snapshot Hennes & […]

Is The (CDS) Maginot Line Falling?

Introduction The aim of this article is to analyse the current CDS spread of France with respect to Germany, and propose a profitable strategy for betting on the convergence of the spreads. The article is going to provide a brief introduction on the topic of CDS, followed by a short overview of the political instability […]

Is the Gun Industry Accurately Priced? A Short Analysis

Introduction The aim of this article is to analyse the current price valuation of the biggest players in the gun manufacturing industry, trying to assess if they are correctly priced. We will begin with a brief overview of the recent past in the guns industry, followed by an extensive analysis of our short-term position, and […]

A Bull Call Spread for Brazil

Brazil is coming from a three-year recessionary period, with an unemployment rate still above 12%. Despite this, the Bovespa index (IBOV), which is the top equity index for the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange and has 59 components, is up almost 10% since January 1st 2017 and up 70% since January 2016 (Chart 1). The current […]

US and Eurozone: expectations upside down

It is widely known that the USA and the EU are in different economic conditions: the American economy has risen from the crisis and the FED is tightening the policy, while Draghi, the president of the ECB, declared that they will keep the quantitative easing going. Unemployment in the US is near its natural rate, […]

Special Report: When the Bull Bursts the Bubble, the Bear Arrives

The main purpose of the following Special Report is to understand how bear and bull markets develop over time and how it is possible to forecast their path. With respect to forecasting bear markets, our focus will be on non-parametric models developed following the algorithms of Bry and Boschan (1971). This will lead us to […]

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