Introduction The aim of this article is to analyse the current CDS spread of France with respect to Germany, and propose a profitable strategy for betting on the convergence of the spreads. The article is going to provide a brief introduction on the topic of CDS, followed by a short overview of the political instability
Introduction The aim of this article is to analyse the current price valuation of the biggest players in the gun manufacturing industry, trying to assess if they are correctly priced. We will begin with a brief overview of the recent past in the guns industry, followed by an extensive analysis of our short-term position, and
Brazil is coming from a three-year recessionary period, with an unemployment rate still above 12%. Despite this, the Bovespa index (IBOV), which is the top equity index for the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange and has 59 components, is up almost 10% since January 1st 2017 and up 70% since January 2016 (Chart 1). The current
It is widely known that the USA and the EU are in different economic conditions: the American economy has risen from the crisis and the FED is tightening the policy, while Draghi, the president of the ECB, declared that they will keep the quantitative easing going. Unemployment in the US is near its natural rate,
The main purpose of the following Special Report is to understand how bear and bull markets develop over time and how it is possible to forecast their path. With respect to forecasting bear markets, our focus will be on non-parametric models developed following the algorithms of Bry and Boschan (1971). This will lead us to
This article will introduce an unconventional way to profit when interest rates rise using inverse ETFs. We will show the upsides and downsides of these tools, focusing on how they could be used in today’s American market. Inverse ETFs could be a useful tool to deal with the possible future bear shift in the bond
The US Electoral System In the US, the race for presidency is a long process that includes primaries, caucuses and national conventions, in which the parties’ candidates are determined. The main popular vote on who is going to be president of the US is called general election and will take place on the 8th November
This article is the follow up to “How to Manipulate the Bitcoin Market (1/3)”. In the second part, we want to show how the spikes in price between the end of May and the first half of June 2016 were the result of just a few investors who used huge leverage to strengthen their position.
This year has been particularly good for emerging markets and there are several reasons underlying the so-called EM rally. The main one is probably the yield hunt, in which yield-hungry investors move to riskier assets in order to have some decent return in the low interest rates environment, thus boosting risky assets and compressing risk
Oil has long been one of the main drivers of the worldwide economy and for this reason it is closely watched by all investors and traders. The central role of what, back in the days, was called the “Black gold” is given by its high cross asset correlation. It has the power of leading the
Stocks have risen sharply since 2011, while earnings have lagged Consider this: Since the beginning of 2011 the S&P 500 has risen by more than 60%. On the contrary, aggregate GAAP earnings of the companies included in the index have actually dropped, while Non-GAAP income (a measure that generally smoothes GAAP earnings for extraordinary items)
Japanese Yen touched a 17-month high of Y107.61 versus the US dollar this Monday. The safe haven currency has rallied more than 10 percent after Bank of Japan’s surprising negative interest rate decision on banks’ excess reserves in late January. Japanese government also sold 10-year bonds with a yield below zero for the first time.
The recent turmoil enduring since the beginning of the year affected in particular energy and financial sectors. Italian banks were hit by a panic sell off that shrank, and in the worst cases halved, their capitalization even though fundamental factors are strong for most of them and no rationality can be found in current market