Category: Markets

Market Recap 29/04/2018

US This week, US equities have shown an increase in volatility: on Tuesday 24th, following the breakthrough of the psychological barrier of 3% in the yield of 10y US treasuries, the most important US indexes S&P 500/DOW JONES 30 and Nasdaq 100 have lost about 2% each. On the same day, the VIX, the index […]

US vs China: Who is Going to Ship more?

Introduction Trade wars and tit-for-tat tariff threats between the two largest national economies should not be expected in a world embracing trade integration and common regulation through institutions such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO). However, this is exactly what we are currently observing in a US-led, politically motivated upheaval against Chinese trade practices, that […]

Veni, Vidi, Vici: The Blackstone Way To Trade CDS

The CDS Market Until 2008, credit default swap (CDS) markets have grown exponentially since their emergence in the late 1990s but shrunk considerably to an estimated outstanding notional value of $9.6 trillion in 2017. Despite deliberate efforts by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) and market participants on both buy and sell sides, the […]

Big Brother is Watching You! How Can Alternative Data Help Traders to Beat the Market

Introduction Information has always been one of the main sources of alpha on the market. Centuries ago just having first-hand information about the outcome of a war could very well constitute an important edge over others, the famous speculation of Nathan Rothschild on the Battle of Waterloo comes to mind. As time passed and technology […]

Trading the Carry

  In this article, we will develop an investment strategy on currency, specifically on the USD/CHF pair. We will: Introduce the currency carry trade (for those familiar with it, you are welcomed to skip this brief explanation) Review the developments in the Switzerland economy, and move to the current environment Develop the investment idea Introduction […]

Market Recap 22/04/18

US This week, US equities ended on a low note as the market kept a close watch on rising UST yields and Apple was a drag on the tech sector. The benchmark 10-year yield rose to its highest level in four years. The three major equity indices still managed to finish higher for the week, […]

TIPS, Gold and their divergence. Is it possible to make money?

Introduction on TIPS and Gold as inflation hedge Generally, an assets is considered t o be an “inflation hedge” if either its purchasing power is maintained over the long run or its nominal returns closely track realized inflation over shorter horizons. Gold and TIPS fall into this category and are thus correlated given that they […]

Dislocations Between Historical and Implied Volatility as an Indicators of Volatility Trades

Differences between historical realized volatility and option implied volatility has for long been known as a potential indicator for volatility mispricing. To our knowledge, the first well-known academic study on the topic was conducted by Goyal and Saretto in 2009 and published as the paper ‘Cross-section of Option Returns and Volatility’. We will first start […]

Market Recap 15/04/18

US Over the course of last week, the most important data concerning the United States came out on Friday 14th, when the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment was released. The Consumer Sentiment was 97.8, below the consensus 100.5 and the previous 101.4. This drop seems to due to concerns about the potential impact of President […]

Can We Get Rid of LIBOR?

In the current increasing interest rate environment, the debate about the controversial but nevertheless important benchmark has sparked off again. This is why, we thought it relevant to provide in the following article a refresher on the history and functioning of the London Interbank Offered Rate, as well as examine the possibility of the newly […]

Highly Leveraged Corporate America: All Chickens Come Home to Roost

Introduction The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent Great Recession pushed the US Federal Reserve to deploy two main tools of monetary interventionism: 1) Quantitative Easing (QE) 2) Reduction of the federal funds rate to unprecedented historical lows The Federal Reserve began purchasing both sovereign and corporate bonds in mass amounts as part of […]

Market Recap 08/04/18

US The US equity market has witnessed a lot of volatility during last week. The trade war with China has weighed on all the three major indices: S&P 500 lost 1.38%, Nasdaq and Dow Jones scored -2.10% and -0.71% respectively. On Monday, the slide of some big Tech firms led the Nasdaq to lead losses. […]

All Cold on the Western Front: Trading the Oil Distillates Market in the Age of Climate Change

Introduction In the midst of a particularly cold North American winter induced by an unexpected southwards movement of the polar vertex in late December 2017, New York Harbor Heating Oil surged nearly 15% from its December low through the end of January. This important petroleum middle distillate often used for heating in the Northeast states, […]

Psychological Biases – How many errors do you commit when investing?

Introduction To maximise our profit when investing in financial instruments we try to rely on analysis of the underlying values, macroeconomic trends and possibly other quantitative methods. However, as much as we try to optimise our returns, we often fail to do so, as we fall prey to our own cognitive and emotional biases. Cognitive […]

Market Recap 11/03/18

US Continuing a monthly streak of surprises, after gapping down -0.66% immediately after Gary Cohn’s resignation as economic advisor of the current US administration, the S&P recovered, increasing 3.25% weekly. In particular all the major indexes rallied (Dow +1,77%, S&P +1,74%, Nasdaq +1,93%) on Friday as non-farm payrolls were 313k (vs 210k expected) and wage […]

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